Photo: Government of Alberta

By Emily Keller

covid-19 update

Province releases data modelling expected impacts of COVID-19

Apr 8, 2020 | 4:06 PM

The province has released data modelling the anticipated health impacts on Alberta from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The data highlighted Alberta’s current situation as compared to other parts of Canada and other countries in the world, including Spain, Italy and the United States.

According to the data, Alberta has a rate of 3.11 per 10,000 people for confirmed cases, 0.2 per 10,000 for hospitalizations, 0.07 per 10,000 for those in the ICU, and a rate of 0.06 per 10,000 people for deaths caused by COVID-19.

The model presented gave three scenarios for the impacts that the pandemic will have on the province, including probable, elevated and extreme.

The probable scenario says for every one case, one to two people will be infected, and is more inline with growth in a country such as the United Kingdom. They say this is the most likely scenario to play out, and would see a total of 800,000 cases by the end of summer, and between 400 to 3,100 deaths occur.

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In the elevated scenario, the peak would occur in early May, and two people would be expected to be infected by every one confirmed case, and would have 1.06-million total cases and 500 to 6,600 deaths.

The extreme scenario says the peak would happen in mid-April, and for every one case, three people would be infected, totalling 1.6-million cases and 16,000 to 32,000 deaths. The province says this would be likely if late intervention was taken to contain the spread.

The data is meant to show that the data presented in the three scenarios lays out total cases, as opposed to confirmed cases.

The model also showed expected hospitalizations and those needing intensive care for all scenarios.

The probable peak shows 818 hospitalizations in late May and 232 needing critical care in late May to June.

The elevated scenario sees 1,570 needing hospitalization and 392 needing intensive care in early May.

Health system capacity is also shown in the model. Alberta Health Services (AHS) has made 1,935 beds available as of April 3, and plans to make 2,250 available by the end of April.

For the North Zone, which covers all of Northern Alberta, the current hospital bed capacity is at 929, 12 ICU beds, and 33 ventilators.

For both the probably and elevated scenarios, the expected number of beds across the province are already available.

In terms of ICU spaces and equipment needed, the province says AHS plans to make 1,081 spaces available by the end of April, if needed. They also plan to have 761 ventilators for COVID-19 patients requiring critical care. Currently, 341 ventilators are dedicated to COVID patients.

The model also notes that an increase in the workforce will be needed, and achieved through speeding up training of ICU nurses, contacting former and recently retired ICU nurses, as well as deploying other healthcare workers with the necessary experience.

Increasing and maintaining stock of personal protective equipment is also shown, and the province says they will be tracking use of PPE in non-healthcare fields, as well as ensuring appropriate use.

The province says in the next six to eight weeks, Alberta will be conducting world-class testing and surveillance, aggressive contact tracing and containment, and strong border screening.