Grande Prairie expecting Alberta’s largest population growth outside of Edmonton, Calgary

Economic Development Manager with the City of Grande Prairie Rebecca Leigh does say though that figure is a bit down from recent years in Grande Prairie.

“Grande Prairie, historically, has seen some of the strongest population growth across both the province and the country,” said Leigh. “Over the last 20 years or so, we’ve typically seen about an annual average growth rate of 3.6 per cent. We are projecting that to slow down a little bit over the next 20 years or so.”

Grande Prairie did see a population decrease due to a downturn in energy prices between 2015 and 2016, before beginning to bounce back starting in 2017.

The Alberta government recorded Grande Prairie’s population at 69,355 in 2020, up from 64,891 in 2017.

At an annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, the Swan City would reach 100,000 residents by the year 2046.

While Leigh says city officials are expecting and planning for that population increase, COVID-19’s impact and the downturn in oil prices have meant Grande Prairie’s growth has been stunted in the short term.

“We are expecting to see that continue to be a little bit slower than we’ve been used to. Sort of between that 2020-2022 period, and then projecting to see that take an uptick following 2022 and leading us out to 2046.”

The province’s projections are released annually as a planning and decision-making tool for municipalities, industry, and the province. It looks at factors like fertility, mortality, and both interprovincial and international migration rates.

With that, Leigh says the Grande Prairie area’s vast resources in oil and gas, forestry and agriculture make it a desirable destination for both migrants and industry.

“Grande Prairie’s history really has been that place of opportunity, and that’s why people move out here,” said Leigh. “And so, we don’t expect to see a significant change in that over the next few years.”

In preparation for that projected growth, Leigh says she and her team are continually looking and planning to fill the gaps in services and amenities to ensure Grande Prairie residents, no matter how many there are, have what they need and want.

“So those service-based businesses: retail, restaurants, food and beverage, but also health-care services,” said Leigh. “We’ll be taking a look at where some of those gaps in services might be, and how the city can be positioning itself to attract new businesses or filling in some of the existing vacancies.”

As part of its growth projections, the province compiled three scenarios for potential growth.

In its medium-growth scenario, which is pegged as the most likely, they estimate that Alberta will grow from 4.4 million residents in 2020 to 6.4 million by 2046, marking an increase of just over 45 per cent.

The low-growth scenario puts the population at 5.6 million 25 years from now, while the high-growth scenario pins down over 7.4 million people calling Alberta home.

The province is also projecting that the number of seniors in Alberta will double within that time frame, accounting for about 20 per cent of the overall population by 2046.

While Leigh says Grande Prairie is projecting a rise of about 23 per cent in its senior population, she says the projection she is looking at heavily is that the Swan City is expected to be one of only three communities to see an increase in population among those 15-64 years old.

“All other communities aside from Edmonton, Calgary and Grande Prairie are looking to see a decrease or a slow down of the growth within that age group.”

The Alberta government is also expecting most of the population increase will occur in the Edmonton-Calgary corridor, suggesting 80 per cent of Alberta’s residents will live in that part of the province by 2046.

The province’s full report can be found here.

by Shaun Penner

Grande Prairie expecting Alberta’s largest population growth outside of Edmonton, Calgary

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