Photo vy Curtis Galbraith.

By Curtis Galbraith

Weather

Old Farmer’s Almanac says a winter like in years past is expected in the Peace

Dec 7, 2023 | 6:00 AM

The Canadian edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac says cold and snow are on the way to the Peace this winter.

The Almanac’s Jack Burnett says it will be a winter like we have seen in years past.

He outlines when the coldest periods will be.

“From the end of December through the first 10 days or so of January, so, you know, holiday season, and then from the end of January right through the middle of February.”

“That’s a good, maybe, 25 days of pretty cold weather, colder than normal.”

Burnett adds the prediction does not forecast much of what he calls “super-cold” for March and April.

“There are still going to be cold spells, but it’s interesting, we kind of see the winter centered right toward the end of December right through the middle of February.”

“Usually, you would say ‘Well, of course, that’s where it is”, but not necessarily so. Usually, we get some sort of (cold) snaps in March and, occasionally in April, but we don’t see that. We’ll see.”

Burnett says the times with the most snow will be the first nine days of February and the last week of March. There is also a snowstorm expected in the first week of April.

He adds that in all the years he has been doing this, he doesn’t remember seeing as much white on a map of Canada as there is for this year’s winter prediction.

For spring, Burnett says April and May will be wetter and cooler than average.

“That’s probably a good thing, you know. Going back to the winter, when we see more of the snow put into the ground a little but later in the winter, we’ll get that moisture out there for the growers in your part of Alberta and south.”

Burnett says the Old Farmer’s Almanac has been around 232 years, with the special Canadian edition around for 42 years.

He says the formula for predicting weather has been in use since 1792 and takes into account three things: local weather phenomena and the effects of things like mountains and lakes, long-term weather trends for a particular area, and solar radiation.

They also have access to all the Environment Canada weather observations. Computers are used to go back in history to find similar patterns to what is happening when the forecast is being made and what the weather was like afterward to see if the patterns might be repeated.

Burnett says they have adjusted for climate change, bringing the accuracy rate for their predictions back to around 80 per cent, where it is usually, after it had dropped to around 70 per cent for a few years.

The first official day of winter is December 21. March 20, 2024 is the first official day of spring.