Trump’s trade war with Canada is becoming a ballot box issue ahead of U.S. midterms

Canada is Maine’s largest trading partner and many of the state’s critical industries, like seafood and lumber, are integrated with Canadian sectors. Collins has acknowledged that the tariffs on Canada are “terrible for Maine” and are making the job of re-election a lot harder.

While Collins’ seat in Maine could be the most vulnerable, it’s not the only one being rattled by Trump’s attacks on Canada as Republicans look to hold power in Congress.

Matthew Lebo, a political-science professor at Western University in London, Ont., said long-term historical trends show that, in general, midterm elections are usually bad for the party of the president in power.

He said while many political observers have been predicting for some time the House will flip to the Democrats, the Senate could also be in play now.

“Some of the key states that have become battleground states are ones with really close trading relationships with Canada,” Lebo said, pointing to Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan and Ohio.

“You’ve got Republican candidates who have to be confronted with trade policies against Canada that are making it harder to export stuff to Canada and are making some things really expensive for people in those states to import.”

The relationship between Canada and the United States was upended by Trump’s return to the White House. Suddenly, Canada found itself the target of tariffs and threats of annexation from a president who sees it less as a close ally and more as an adversary.

While Canadians have been laser-focused on the upheaval, many Americans have been oblivious to the downturn in the relationship. That changed last month when tensions escalated after trade talks between the two countries broke down.

Trump subsequently imposed 50 per cent tariffs on an array of Canadian goods, from hockey sticks and cement to honey. Trump also ramped up his anti-Canada rhetoric and signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America.”

Canada is set to implement its retaliatory duties on Tuesday. Many are aimed at key industries in states where there are competitive midterm races.

Both countries have accused each other of adding last-minute changes to negotiations. Trump’s team has spread out on American news stations in an attempt to place the blame at Ottawa’s feet and to accuse Prime Minister Mark Carney of tanking a deal for domestic political reasons.

Carney, pushing back on those claims, said last week that he doesn’t think “appointed, unelected cabinet members in the United States are experts on Canadian politics.”

It’s not clear whether the Trump administration’s claims about the trade war are breaking through. Both the tariffs and the order to rename Lake Ontario are proving to be very unpopular with Americans.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll published last week suggested two-in-three Americans disapproved of the lake’s name change. It also found only 20 per cent of Americans supported higher tariffs on Canada.

A source with who was not authorized to speak publicly said Republicans from border states approached United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during an event at the White House on Sept. 2. They told Trump’s trade czar to find an off-ramp from the trade war because it was becoming politically toxic, the source said.

Democrats have been quick to jump on the weaknesses the trade war with Canada has exposed. Michigan Democrat Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said last week “this vanity war is not a war with Canada.”

“It’s a war on Michigan because we have to pay the price,” he said. “And we pay it every single day for goods that should not cost as much as they do.”

Lebo said some Republican candidates are already trying to distance themselves from Trump and his tariffs on Canada.

While New York’s Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul has been vocal in her criticism of the trade war with Canada, her Trump-backed opponent Bruce Blakeman has been harder to pin down.

“I’m not going to talk about federal issues,” Blakeman said when asked by Spectrum News about the trade tensions in late August.

Other Republicans are doubling down. Anthony Constantino, a Republican running for a House seat in New York State, said renaming Lake Ontario was an act of “marketing genius” and claimed “Trump showed strength in negotiations with Canada by playing a card he had available to play.”

Christopher Sands, director of Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Canadian Studies, said the bigger picture is that the United States economy is in a state of flux, which is causing a lot of uncertainty ahead of the November election.

The war with Iran, rising gas prices and tariffs have affected domestic investment and employment at a time when the top issue on the ballot box is affordability.

Sands said while neither party can expect a “cake walk” in November, Trump has handed Democrats an opening with his attack on Canada.

Democrats have long been looking for something to unite centrist party members with more left-wing factions like the Democratic Socialists of America. Sands said the trade war with Canada could do just that.

“They feel that they can make the case that this is a senseless trade war,” he said.

“I think most Americans don’t even understand why it’s happening.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 7, 2026.

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press

by The Canadian Press