(Dreamstime)

By David Opinko

Unemployment & economic growth in Alberta to be slightly higher than national average

Jul 12, 2021 | 12:11 PM

LETHBRIDGE, AB – The next year and a half will be a bit of a mixed bag for Alberta.

Over the last month, five major financial institutions released their economic projections for the country as it emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the one hand, growth in Real GDP will be slightly above the national average, but on the other hand, so will unemployment.

That is according to reports from the Bank of Montreal (BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), National Bank of Canada (NBC), Scotiabank, and Toronto Dominion (TD). We took the averages from each institution for the purposes of this article.

Unemployment forecasts in Alberta (%). (Compiled by LNN)

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Unemployment forecasts in Canada (%). (Compiled by LNN)

Projected Change in Real GDP in Alberta (%). (Compiled by LNN)

Projected Change in Real GDP in Canada (%). (Compiled by LNN)

The COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in March 2020 in the country, caused the provincial unemployment rate to rise from seven per cent in 2019 to 11.48 last year.

They predict that this will fall to 8.84 per cent in 2021 and to 6.98 per cent next year.

Those averages are slightly higher than what we will see across Canada.

Pre-pandemic, the national unemployment figure was smaller at 5.7 per cent, rising to 9.6 per cent in 2020. This will decrease to 7.54 per cent in 2021 and to 5.95 per cent in 2022.

When it comes to the economy, Alberta was in a tougher position than the country as a whole. Not only were there COVID-19 restrictions forcing people out of work and a general global economic downtown, but the province also faced a massive oil price crash.

Real GDP in Alberta was stagnant in 2019 before plummeting by 8.2 per cent in the dawn of COVID-19.

Things are set to return to the black in 2021, rising by 6.8 per cent with a further growth of 4.44 per cent in 2022.

The Canadian economy was coming along steadily in 2019 with an increase of 1.9 per cent. Real GDP fell by 5.3 per cent last year but will rise by six per cent this year and 4.22 per cent next year.

We have included graphs showing trends in unemployment and Real GDP in Alberta over the last decade.

Unemployment rate in Alberta between June 2011 and June 2021. (Government of Alberta)

Changes in GDP in Alberta between 2010 and 2020. (Government of Alberta)

Links to each of the reports can be found below:

BMO

CIBC

NBC

Scotiabank

TD