Photo: Youtube / Government of Alberta / Global News

By Shaun Penner

Premier's Address

Up to 800,000 COVID-19 infections possible in Alberta under current projections: Kenney

Apr 7, 2020 | 6:18 PM

The Premier of Alberta says the projections from Alberta Health show that anywhere from 400 to 6,600 people could die from COVID-19 in Alberta.

Jason Kenney spoke to Albertans in a televised address Tuesday evening, where he unveiled Alberta Health’s models of what the spread of COVID-19 is projected to look like in our province.

Kenney said current rates of hospitalization for COVID-19 in Alberta are much lower than other large provinces like Ontario, Quebec and B.C.

He added that the “curve” in the province is also much lower than many other parts of the world.

“So far, our curve more closely resembles countries that have successfully fought the virus, like South Korea, than the sharp upwards rise seen in countries like Italy, Spain, and the United States.”

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But Kenney did caution that the province is far from all clear when it comes to the novel coronavirus and that the total number of infections will continue to increase, based on the current projections.

Under what Kenney classified as the “probable” scenario, the total number of infections is expected to peak in mid-May, saying that from March to the end of summer, as many as 800,000 people could become infected with the virus, while 400 to 3,100 people could die.

Under an “elevated” scenario, infections are projected to peak early in May, but as many as one million people could become infected, while 500 to 6,600 people could die.

“I know that these numbers can be overwhelming, but these models are not a done deal. I want Albertans to see them as a challenge. Perhaps the greatest challenge of our generation.”

Kenney said the best way to keep in the probable scenario, or to see even better results, is to continue to follow social distancing measures and practice good hygiene.

He stressed the importance of continuing to follow social distancing mandates because, without any such measures in place, numbers could be much worse.

Kenney said Alberta Health’s projections show that with no social distancing measures, as many as 1.6 million people could become infected, with up to 32,000 deaths, which is a rate of 640 deaths per day.

“Our health system would collapse under the chaos of that scenario. Albertans won’t let that happen. Period.”

Kenney says because of these models, social distancing measures are likely to last until at least the end of May.

“As hard as this will be, it is the only ethical choice when thousands of lives are still at stake.”

The Premier went on to say that at the point where the province can relax social distancing measures, they will implement a relaunch strategy, similar to what countries like South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have implemented that will include aggressive mass testing of up to 20,000 people per day, more precise tetsing of close contacts and stronger border screening.

“I believe it was a mistake for Canada to wait so long to close our borders, especially from countries with high levels of infection. While Alberta does not control who can fly here, we will deploy a much more rigorous approach than the federal government has in screening and quarantining international arrivals.”

Others measures like struictly enforced quarantine orders and the use of masks in crowded places will also be utilized.