Photo: Government of Alberta

By Shaun Penner

"Our efforts are working"

Six new COVID-19 cases identified in North as province unveils updated modelling

Apr 28, 2020 | 4:31 PM

One of the cases of COVID-19 in the County of Grande Prairie has recovered while the province added 154 new cases for April 28, according to the Tuesday update from the province.

The recovered case in the County means there are now three active and two recovered cases in that area. There was no change to the City of Grande Prairie’s totals on Tuesday, which stays at two recovered cases.

Six of the new cases were identified in the North Zone to bring the total to 202 as of Tuesday. Five of those new cases come in the M.D. of Smoky River area, which has now seen 65 cases of COVID-19. The other new case in the North was reported in the Big Lakes County area, which has 33 cases as of April 28.

There have now been 4,850 presumptive or confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Alberta as of Tuesday.

An updated list of cases in Peace Region municipalities can be found below:

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• City of Grande Prairie: Two cases (Both recovered)
• County of Grande Prairie: Five cases (Three active, two recovered)
• M.D. of Greenview: Two cases (One active, one recovered)
• M.D. of Smoky River: 65 cases (23 active, 32 recovered, ten deaths)
• Big Lakes County: 33 cases (14 active, 17 recovered, two deaths)
• M.D. of Lesser Slave River: Five cases (One active, four recovered)
• Northern Sunrise County: Three cases (All recovered)
• M.D. of Peace: Seven cases (One active, six recovered)
• Clear Hills County: One case (Fatal)
• County of Northern Lights: One case (Recovered)
• Mackenzie County: 20 cases (19 active, one recovered)

Five more people have died from complications with COVID-19 over the last 24 hours in Alberta, bringing the total number of fatalities to 80 as of April 28. No deaths were reported in the North Zone, keeping the death toll at 14.

Eighty-two people are in hospital at this time in Alberta, while 21 are in Intensive Care.

The number of recoveries also jumped to 1,800 on Tuesday, an increase of 136 from Monday. 131,772 Albertans have received a COVID-19 test as of April 28, while 10,476 of those tests have come from Northern Alberta.

During the daily COVID-19 update Tuesday, Premier Jason Kenney shared that the updated data and modelling from Alberta Health on the novel coronavirus shows that “our efforts to reduce the peak of the virus are working.”

He added the number of Albertans hospitalized and in intensive care is well below what was originally projected.

“While this is good news, we must remain vigilant. While we are a ways off of returning to our normal way of life, we are working as a government around the clock on our phased approach to relaunch.”

The health measures Kenney said they will keep an eye on include hospitalization and ICU admissions, as well as the rate of growth of cases as a percentage of testing.

The updated probable scenario has 596 people requiring in-hospital treatment at the peak of the outbreak, which is down from 818 in the original modelling. The updated elevated scenario sees a drop to 745, compared to 1,570 in the original modelling.

The province also unveiled a new “low” scenario, which Kenney says has the potential to be the most likely scenario for the province should current trends continue. Under this scenario, 298 people would require hospitalization during the peak of the virus. 95 of those would need to be in ICU.

Photo: Government of Alberta

Kenney also hinted that the phased plan to relaunch Alberta’s economy will be outlined later this week. When asked, Kenney said it will be similar, but not identical, to Saskatchewan’s recently announced approach.

“I do hope we will be able to begin reopening aspects of social and economic life currently being suspended in the month of May,” the premier says. “Hope is coming because later this week we will begin announcing measures to begin gradually (and) prudently move towards more economic and social activity. It has to be done in a measured way. To quote Premier (Scott) Moe (of Saskatchewan), it’s going to be more like a dimmer switch than an on-off switch.”

Kenney added, “It is essential Albertans continue to exercise common sense and follow public health guidance so we can get the economy moving again as quickly as possible.”

“Today, I am asking you to celebrate the success we have had by holding on just a little longer,” urged Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health. “Our public health measures are working, and we need to keep them working.”

“Alberta is starting to see the results of the collective sacrifices we have made, but I want to stress that this fight is far from over,” said Dr. Hinshaw. “Modelling is just a projection of a potential future. It is not a guarantee and cases could easily spike in Alberta if we are not careful.”

(With files from Chris Brown and Troy Gillard)