By Liam Verster

Wildfire Risk

Summer wildfire risk high as researchers project a hot, dry summer

May 6, 2020 | 2:39 PM

Research from the Meteorological Service of Canada, long term weather projections from Environment and Climate Change Canada, fire agencies’ information on moisture conditions, and predictions from international sources, has been used to create a long term weather forecast for Western Canada.

The data, which was compiled by Natural Resources Canada, shows dry, hot weather creating a high risk of wildfires. That data is used to create an interactive map, which has been made available through the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System.

Brian Wiens, the Director of Wildland Fire Research at the Northern Forestry Centre, which is part of the Canadian Forest Service, says once a month data is collected and used to create a weather prediction for the wildfire season. He says the first prediction they did was in April, and showed May as being on average. However, as more data is collected, a trend starts to appear, which is currently projecting a hotter and dryer than usual next few months.

“We’re into a higher than average risk that’s projected for most of Western Canada and into Northwestern Ontario for June. Then moving on to July, the higher than average fire risk is forecast to move really across most of the forested regions of Western Canada.”

He says the projections show that, moving into August and September, the fire risk area starts to shrink back, but it won’t be until the fall when Alberta is back to a moderate or below average risk of a fire.

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Wiens says the projection is based on data trends, but adds that long term forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

“The farther you go out, the more complications that get into the forecast. Usually we can give a pretty good idea on month one, we start to get a trend into month two and three and four. So, we do this as a service to say ‘this is an estimate, a projection,’ but there’s an awful lot of things that can change and complicate the situation.

“The other important thing to remember with fire risk is that just because there’s a risk, doesn’t mean there’s fires. You have to have fuels that will burn, but you also have to have something that’s going to start it.”

Wiens says, nation-wide, about 50 per cent of wildfires are human caused, but in Alberta specifically, that figure is closer to 70 per cent. He adds that people need to follow the regulations put in place by the various levels of government, whether it be campfire restrictions or OHV bans, to help reduce the risk of a fire starting.

The research teams are going to keep collecting data, and updating the long term forecast in the coming weeks and months. Wiens says the current trend doesn’t show any changes, but there are a few factors that could come into play and alter the prediction.

“When we look at fire risk, it’s a combination of what has been: how much rain, how much snow, how wet are the fuels right now. And then it’s a factor of how hot is it going to get? how much precipitation are we going to get?”

He says while it’s best to have hot sunny days for summer plans, there also needs to be some precipitation and cooler days in order to drop that risk level to moderate.

Two predictions have been made for the summer’s fire risk so far, and another will be done at the end of May to update the data and the forecast. In the meantime, Wiens asks the public to be smart with their fires and follow the restrictions in place, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is causing extra stresses and challenges for both first responders and the economy.