Health Minister Tyler Shandro (Photo: Government of Alberta)

By Chris Brown

Virus Variants

Shandro: New COVID-19 variants present ‘serious threat’

Jan 25, 2021 | 5:06 PM

Health Minister Tyler Shandro says Albertans aren’t immune to the impacts of new variants of COVID-19 that have been circulating around the world.

“These new variants present a serious threat and a complicating factor when it comes to relaxing restrictions,” said Shandro. “We need to continue to proceed cautiously, recognizing our health-care system is still under significant strain.

“If we’re not careful, our health-care could be in a dark situation within weeks and it would be very difficult to get things under control.”

In the last few months, several variants have been discovered, and two are of particular concern in Alberta – the variant first discovered in the United Kingdom and another in South Africa.

He said the variants can spread very quickly, and emerging research indicates they have a significantly higher infection rate, estimated about “30-50 per cent higher than the strain that we’ve had in Alberta to date.”

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There are 20 cases of the U.K strain in Alberta and five of the South Africa strain, and that virtually all are directly linked to international travel.

One case of the U.K. variant is so far not linked to travel.

“This means it may have entered the broader community. Let me be blunt: This is very concerning,” said Shandro.

There was a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.K. and Ireland as the variants took hold there.

Shandro said health officials have been watching and shared projections on what Alberta could be dealing with if these variants became the dominant strain, saying he wants to provide “facts not fear” and that the projections provide important context.

Over six weeks, starting at 250 active cases and with no health measures in place, that number would rise to 2,217 with the current strain and to 10,217 if the variant strain becomes the dominant one.

Hospitalizations would rise from 1,073 to 3,611 over eight weeks and ICU admissions from about 200 to about 800 over seven weeks.

The government is increasing genetic testing and expanding the rapid screening capacity for mutations of concern.

There are also changes to the border testing program.

“Effective immediately, participants must remain in isolation until their second negative test comes back,” Shandro said. If either comes back positive the person must isolate for the full 14 days.

Previously people could leave isolation after the first negative test after arriving, provided they sought another test after about one week.

Anyone currently in the program who hasn’t received a second negative test must return to isolation immediately.

All samples from the border program will be analyzed for both the U.K. and South African variants.

The government will start giving weekly updates on the variants.

Shandro said research shows the current vaccines protect against the new variants.